Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Expected Goals (xG) can predict the probability of teams winning the Men's EHF EURO 2026 - with Denmark given by far the ...

Mathematicians rely on numbers, but finding words to explain different levels of certainty has stymied everyone from the ...

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

The continued existence of lotteries is a demonstration of how little intuition humans have for probability. On some level, ...

Treasury yield simulations project 3‑month bills at 1%–2% in 10 years; curves show widening risk premiums, inversion odds and ...

Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 paths shows 60% of scenarios place XRP between $1.04 and $3.40 by December 2026. The median outcome is $1.88 while only 10% of scenarios exceed $5.90. Downside tail ...

The simulation hypothesis—the idea that our universe might be an artificial construct running on some advanced alien computer—has long captured the public imagination. Yet most arguments about it rest ...

The idea that we’re living inside a simulation, as popularized by “The Matrix” franchise, has piqued the interest of scientists for decades. In 2003, philosopher Nick Bostrom proposed in a highly ...