A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

Treasury yields have shifted, with the 2-year yield at 3.99% and the 10-year yield at 4.32%, widening the 2-year/10-year spread to 0.33%. The probability of an inverted yield curve peaks at 24.2% by ...

SANTA ANA, Calif. — Consumers and corporate chieftains alike should check an economic flare the bond market sent up on Tuesday. Traders on Tuesday demanded higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...