It may be misleading to estimate value-at-risk (VAR) or other risk measures assuming normally distributed innovations in a model for a heteroscedastic financial return series. Using the t-distribution ...

Expanding the realized variance concept through realized skewness and kurtosis is a straightforward process. We calculate one-day forecasts for these moments with a simple exponentially weighted ...

Forecasting for any small business involves guesswork. You know your business and its past performance, but you may not be comfortable predicting the future. Using Excel is a great way to perform what ...